SBPA Recommends Smarter Transit Investments Over Costly BART Extension
The South Bay Progressive Alliance (SBPA) urges redirecting funds from the Silicon Valley BART Extension Phase II project to other transit solutions that offer a much better return on investment (ROI). The Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) plans to spend an estimated $12 billion to construct a massive BART underground tunnel system with four stations to connect East San Jose (Berryessa BART) with Diridon Station (Caltrain) in Downtown San Jose.
The 6-mile extension, which will bring BART under downtown San Jose and into Santa Clara, costs roughly $2B/mile. The earlier 10-mile extension from Fremont to Berryessa (Phase 1) only cost $2.3B in total, or $0.23B/mile. Tunneling underground in mud, sand, and water (instead of rock) accounts for most of the 10-fold cost increase.
The recent change in federal administration jeopardizes Department of Transportation funding of $5B that's needed to build the project. Meanwhile, VTA struggles to fill the remaining $300M to $800M local funding gap.
Using technology developed in the 1960's, BART's commuter rail system relies upon big stations along a few corridors in the sprawling Bay Area. Recently, the system has experienced a worsening of 4 mutually-reinforcing problems: low ridership, low fare box recovery, financial difficulties, and security issues.
Now is a good time to consider alternatives to the BART-Caltrain Connection like buses, light rail, or Automated Transit Networks (ATN).
Cost vs. Funding
VTA’s original estimate in 2014, pegged the BART Extension cost at $4.7 billion with an estimated completion date in 2026. As recently as Spring 2022, VTA still touted a $6.9 billion estimate. The project is now expected to cost $12.8 billion and be completed in 2037, well past the date that dramatic reductions in CO2 emissions are required to prevent the worst effects of Global Warming. In Summer 2024, the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) agreed to commit nearly $5.1 billion to the project - leaving only a 5.5% funding gap of $700M. Then, the 2024 election happened!
Because the new administration’s Project 2025 calls for transit projects to meet “sound economic standards and a rigorous cost-benefit analysis”, it seems unlikely that the BART project will get the expected $5B from FTA. Without that funding, the project will likely to be delayed another 4, 8, or more years until a more favorable administration is elected.
By re-thinking the Berryessa-Diridon connection, other options could be deployed without federal funding, and using just local funding of $5B VTA expects from 4 local sales tax measures.
Funding for BART Extension
FTA New Starts funding in question with new federal administration and Congress
* Distance between BART Berryessa Station and Caltrain Diridon station = 3.5 miles and includes 2 intermediate stations - just like between BART MacArthur Station and West Oakland Station which requires 10 minutes to cover the distance. Thus, the average speed = 21 mph [3.5 miles / (10 mins./60 mins/hr) = 21 mph).]
BART Disadvantages
BART is slow. The average speed of BART trains between Berryessa and Santa Clara is just 21 mph.* Adding minutes awaiting a train, riding long escalators from 75 feet underground, and walking 600 feet to Diridon Station, and the average speed slows to that of an electric bike.
BART’s low ridership. While commuter rail like BART is capable of moving 50,000 people per hour, the projected ridership is 50,000 riders per day. Even if all 50,000 passengers were carried during just 5 hours of the day, technology to move 10,000 people per hour is adequate. Both LRT and BRT can easily handle that volume, as can 2 PRT guideways.
BART’s huge carbon footprint. The steel, cement, and other materials used to construct BART require lots of energy to manufacture and deliver. Most of that energy generates lots of CO2 emissions. That is called "embedded carbon", and BART's 50-foot-wide tunnels and 700-foot-long stations require huge amounts of it. Reports show that 20 years of electricity generation is required before overcoming the carbon embedded in building a nuclear power plant. A similar figure can be expected from the BART Extension, especially with low ridership. At a time when we need to dramatically and quickly reduce carbon emissions, the BART Extension does neither.
Alternatives
Instead of extending BART technology for $12B ($2000M/mile), quicker-to-implement and far less costly options—like buses, light rail, or Automated Transit Networks (ATN)—could achieve similar goals for less than $2 billion. Local funding could pay for it without the need for federal funding or time-delaying reviews.
We know from the 2024Mar7 VTA Board Agenda that the 2.5-mile Eastridge-BART light rail connector (much of which is elevated) will cost $653M, or $261M/mile. PRT technology costs range from $10M/mile to $100M/mile depending upon the PRT design. When repurposing existing roadway, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) costs a mere $5-15M/mile – whereas adding dedicated lanes can cost $40M/mile or more (2011Oct23: San Jose Mercury-News article, New Look for El Camino).
BRT - Bus Rapid Transit
In uncongested areas where the primary limitation on road capacity is intersections that slow traffic flow, BRT could be the obvious choice. If BRT were given special treatment at intersections (priority signaling), it would not need a dedicated lane to ensure increased average speed. Priority signaling is only needed for 15 seconds as each bus approaches the intersection. That means that buses with 5-minute headways (the time between buses) leave the remaining 285 seconds (95% of the time) available to cars. Such low cost and quick-to-implement service commends this option.
However, even with priority signaling, transit time between the BART and Caltrain stations is unlikely to be much better than the current 17–23 minutes by bus. A 16-minute transit time means an average speed of just 13 mph compared with the 7-minute transit time promised by PRT's 30 mph average speed.
LRT - Light Rail Transit
LRT has not been the success that was promised in the 1980's. After 2 decades of service, it remains a slow, corridor transit option that ill serves a metropolitan sprawl. The light rail system has been criticized for being one of the least used in the United States and the most heavily subsidized.
The distance between the Santa Teresa and Blossom Hill LRT stations is 3 miles with 2 intermediate stations. According to VTA's schedule, the trip takes 7 minutes, thus averaging 25 mph. Similar performance can be expected along the proposed BART route.
Community resistance to multi-year impacts of construction makes at-grade LRT a non-starter. Elevated LRT above Santa Clara Street would likely arouse similar resistance due to visual intrusion and noise (steel wheels on steel rails). Alternative routing may be feasible.
Automated Transit Networks
In the realm of transportation options, Personal Rapid Transit (PRT, 1-6 passengers per vehicle) falls under the Automated Transit Network (ATN) umbrella, along with it’s bigger cousins Group Rapid Transit (GRT, 7-24 passengers) and Automated People Movers (APM, 25-100 passengers).
PRT (aka “podcar network”) is an elevated, zero-carbon, electric, on-demand, private, non-stop point-to-point, and networked system with many small stations. It works like a horizontal elevator. Go to your neighborhood podcar stop, enter a vehicle, select your destination, and ride quickly to it - quicker than driving. Rather than an innovation in technology, PRT recombines established technologies in a new, synergistic way.
A prime example of a cost-effective ATN is Glydways-style PRT technology, which uses self-driving personal podcars. Similar systems, such as Heathrow Airport's connector between Terminal 5 and its business passenger parking lot, will reduce travel times and remove cars from busy streets. In San Jose, such technology could cut the BART-to-Caltrain trip time to just 7 minutes, compared to the current 17–23 minutes by bus. Learn more about PRT at MilpitasPRT.com
During the Podcar City conference in Dec. of 2023, PRT companies provided characteristics and costs. Here's a comparison of several systems as presented:
At $15M/guideway-mile (one-way) of PRT (podcar) technology, full coverage of 10 square miles of San Jose is estimated to cost about $700M. The entire area between Berryessa and Diridon - 2 miles wide and 5 miles long - could be served by 80 podcar stops. See image below.
Both a website and a 90-minute video discussion of the BART-Caltrain Connection contain more information on the BART Burrow, PRT technology, and public transit generally.
Comparing the Options
Comparing transit options requires weighing multiple factors. In the table below, "User Criteria" and associated ratings for auto, AV, PRT, and BRT come from Part 2 of Mobility for Humans: Here to There in Four Parts by Loren Pahlke. The table's lower portion rates the primary interests of transportation planners at VTA. A brief overview of the article includes the following statement.
"In the Transportation Master Plan (TMP), the measurable objectives established by our planners have to do with the environment, congestion, social justice and safety. However, according to an article by the National League of Cities Center for Research and Innovation, the primary interests of transportation users are comfort, reliability, speed, convenience, out-of-pocket costs and safety.
Aside from safety, there is very little overlap between the criteria that city planners feel are important enough to measure and the criteria that matter to transportation users."
Rating Assumptions:
- User Criteria for LRT and BART are assumed to be comparable to, or somewhat better than, BRT.
- The BRT, LRT, and BART solutions are corridor type, while the auto, AV, and PRT solutions are network type as shown in the above 10 square-mile zone.
- LRT and BART solutions provide 4 stations, while PRT offers 80 podcar stops. Both auto and AV offer thousands of start/stop locations.
Various groups have studied transit options, and created their own comparison charts. To further investigate ratings, see a brief comparison chart and the logic behind the ratings in the paper "SOME 21ST CENTURY TRANSPORTATION SOLUTIONS - A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS".
In the following multi-factor comparison table (matrix chart), these are the heading abbreviations:
- AV = Autonomous/driverless Vehicle
- PRT = Personal Rapid Transit
- BRT = Bus Rapid Transit
- LRT = Light Rail Transit
- BART = Bay Area Rapid Transit
| User Criteria | auto | AV | PRT | BRT | LRT | BART |
| Comfort: heat and cold | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Comfort: minimal passenger noise | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Comfort: privacy | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Comfort: for varying abilities | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Costs: vehicles, gas, tolls, etc. | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Reliability: 24-7 service | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Reliability: available when needed | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Reliability: on-time performance | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Reliability: usable in all weather conditions | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Safety: minimizes crashes and assaults | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Speed: minimal door-to-door time | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Speed: productivity during travel | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Total Score | 44 | 50 | 52 | 35 | 38 | 39 |
| VTA’s BART Project Criteria | auto | AV | PRT | BRT | LRT | BART |
| Improve public transit service | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Enhance regional connectivity | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Increase transit ridership | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Support transportation solutions that will maintain the economic vitality and continuing development of Silicon Valley | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Improve mobility options | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Enhance level and quality of transit service to areas of existing and planned affordable housing | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Improve regional air quality | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Support local and regional land use plans | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Total Score | 18 | 24 | 36 | 20 | 19 | 19 |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Recommendations
Confronting the likely loss of $5B from the FTA, the VTA Board has 3 basic options:
- find $5B elsewhere (unlikely given BART's low ROI),
- await a friendly federal administration (4, 8, or more years), or
- let go of last century’s vision and embrace a new one.
The VTA Board can mitigate the risk of losing federal funding by devising Plan B now! Although 3 Grand Jury reports have called out the authority’s governance structure as ineffective, SBPA believes the Board members can come together to implement the following recommendations.
Our Climate Crisis requires big reductions in CO2 emissions soon. SBPA sees no other technologies capable of the ROI environmentally, economically, and in service levels expected with podcar networks. Exploratory investments in PRT technology will yield current/local cost and ridership estimates to guide future decisions.
A dozen studies show that the synergy of PRT with other existing transportation options will dramatically increase transit ridership by factors 2X to 10X. PRT also presents possibilities for moving freight, recyclable materials, and garbage – leading to further large reductions in transportation costs and CO2 emissions. Such potential for our climate, finances, and equity merits further exploration of PRT technology by the agency responsible for our public transit.
- SBPA urges Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) to redirect funds from the BART Extension Phase 2 project to other transit solutions that offer better service, sooner, and at lower cost.
- To connect East San Jose (Berryessa BART) with Diridon Station (Caltrain) in Downtown San Jose, SBPA urges VTA to adopt a standards-based, technology-agnostic approach to transit service.
- Additionally, SBPA urges VTA to fund exploratory investments in Personal Rapid Transit technology starting with the Milpitas BART feeder project and the Diridon-Airport Connector.
- VTA is advised to immediately invest $6M into the Milpitas PRT Demonstration Project to buy the pre-construction work (final design, engineering, and permitting) that will answer many questions.
