SBPA Recommends Smarter Transit Investments Over Costly BART Extension
The South Bay Progressive Alliance (SBPA) urges redirecting funds from the BART Extension Phase II project to other transit solutions that offer a much better return on investment. The Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) plans to spend an estimated $12 billion to construct a massive BART underground tunnel system with four stations to connect East San Jose (Berryessa BART) with Diridon Station (Caltrain) in Downtown San Jose.
The 6-mile extension, which will bring BART through downtown San Jose and into Santa Clara, costs roughly $2B/mile. The earlier 10-mile extension from Fremont to Berryessa (Phase 1) only cost $2.3B in total, or $0.23B/mile. Tunneling underground in mud, sand, and water (instead of rock) accounts for most of the 10-fold cost increase.
Using technology developed in the 1960's, BART's commuter rail system relies upon big stations along a few corridors in the sprawling Bay Area. Recently, the system has experienced a worsening of 4 mutually-reinforcing problems: low ridership, low fare box recovery, financial difficulties, and security issues.
Now is a good time to consider alternatives to the BART-Caltrain Connection like buses, light rail, or Automated Transit Networks (ATN).
Cost vs. Funding
VTA’s original estimate in 2014, pegged the BART Extension cost at $4.7 billion with an estimated completion date in 2026. As recently as Spring 2022, VTA still touted a $6.9 billion estimate. The project is now expected to cost $12.7 billion and be completed in 2037, well past the date that dramatic reductions in CO2 emissions are required. This past Summer, we learned that the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) agreed to commit nearly $5.1 billion to the project - leaving only a 5.5% funding gap of $700M. Then, the election happened!
Because the new administration’s Project 2025 calls for transit projects to meet “sound economic standards and a rigorous cost-benefit analysis”, it seems unlikely that the BART project will get the expected $5B from FTA. Without that funding, the project is likely to be delayed another 4, 8, or 12 years until a more favorable administration is elected.
Funding for BART Extension
FTA New Starts funding in question with new federal administration and Congress
* Trips on the 6-mile 4-station extension from the Berryessa station to the Santa Clara Caltrain station will take as long as riding from the Coliseum Station to the Oakland/19th Street station (also 6 miles and 4 stations), or 13 minutes according to the BART schedule. Thus, the average speed = 27.7 mph [6 miles / (13 mins./60 mins/hr)].
BART Disadvantages
BART is slow. The average speed of BART trains between Berryessa and Santa Clara is just 27.7 mph. Add in minutes awaiting a train, riding long escalators from 75 feet underground, and walking 600 feet to Diridon Station, results in the average speed slowing to that of an electric bike. *
BART’s low ridership. While commuter rail like BART is capable of moving 50,000 people per hour, the projected ridership is 50,000 riders per day. Even if all 50,000 passengers were carried during just 5 hours of the day, technology to move 10,000 people per hour is adequate. Both LRT (Light Rail Transit) and BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) can easily handle that volume, as can 2 PRT (Personal Rapid Transit) lines.
BART’s huge carbon footprint. The steel, cement, and other materials used to construct BART require lots of energy to manufacture and deliver. Most of that energy generates lots of CO2 emissions. That is called "embedded carbon", and BART's 50-foot-wide tunnels and stations require huge amounts of it. Reports show that 20 years of electricity generation is required before overcoming the carbon embedded in building a nuclear power plant. A similar figure can be expected from the BART Extension, especially with low ridership. At a time when we need to dramatically and quickly reduce carbon emissions, the BART Extension does neither.
Alternatives
Instead of extending BART technology for $12B ($2000M/mile), quicker to implement and far less costly options—like buses, light rail, or Automated Transit Networks (ATN)—could achieve similar goals for less than $2 billion. Local funding could pay for it without the need for federal funding or time-delaying reviews.
We know from the 2024Mar7 VTA Board Agenda that the 2.5-mile Eastridge-BART light rail connector (much of which is elevated) will cost $653M, or $261M/mile. PRT (a form of ATN) technology costs range from $20M/mile to $50M/mile depending upon the brand. When repurposing existing roadway, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) costs a mere $5-15M/mile – whereas adding dedicated lanes can cost $40M/mile or more (2011Oct23: San Jose Mercury-News article, New Look for El Camino).
BRT could be the obvious choice in uncongested areas where the primary limitation on road capacity is intersections. If BRT were given special treatment at intersections (priority signaling), buses would not need a dedicated lane to ensure they are rapid. Priority signaling is only needed for 15 seconds as each bus approaches the intersection. That means that buses with 5-minute headways (the time between buses) leave the remaining 285 seconds (95% of the time) available to cars. Such low cost and quick-to-implement service commends this option which VTA is pursuing through their Speed and Reliability Program.
Both a website and a 90-minute video discussion of the BART-Caltrain Connection contain more information on the BART Burrow, PRT technology, and public transit generally.
-- SBPA Media Release --
Recommendations
The VTA Board can mitigate the risk of losing federal funding by proactively devising Plan B. Although 3 Grand Jury reports have called out the authority’s governance structure as ineffective, SBPA believes the Board members can come together to implement the following recommendations.
- SBPA urges Valley Transportation Authority (VTA) to redirect funds from the BART Extension Phase 2 project to other transit solutions that offer better service, sooner, and at lower cost.
- To connect East San Jose (Berryessa BART) with Diridon Station (Caltrain) in Downtown San Jose, SBPA urges VTA to adopt a standards-based, technology-agnostic approach to transit service.